Ever since the release of the caste-based census data in Bihar on October 2, 2003, there has been a growing demand for conducting similar censuses in all states across the country. The shocking statistics disclosed in the census have sparked considerable anxiety for Prime Minister Narendra Modi causing him sleepless nights. The unveiling of the findings of the caste census by Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, has put Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Godi Media channels in a state of fix. The Prime Minister has reacted strongly against the caste census calling it ‘anti-Hindu’ and has alleged that insisting on such censuses in every state is an attempt by the Congress to divide Hindu Society. Paradoxically, Modi has also falsely claimed that former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said that minorities, including Muslims, have the first right to the country’s resources, a statement Singh never made. By employing this fabricated claim, Modi attempts to position himself as a sympathiser of Muslims and argues that the Congress by advocating for a caste-specific census is demanding the allocation of resources on the basis of the size of the caste population, which he believes would prove detrimental to Muslims. He asserts that, if caste specific resource allocation is implemented, Hindus being the largest demographic, will receive preferential treatment in all aspects and will progress, leaving Muslims with minimal benefits. This stance represents a shrewd political strategy employed by Modi aiming to simultaneously secure support from the Hindus and appeal to the sympathies of Muslims. Such cunning tactics of sowing discord and misinformation among Hindus and Muslims are not new to Modi, and his political track record readily stands as testimony of such manipulative strategies. In the past, he in response to Rahul Gandhi’s demand for making provision in the Women’s Reservation Bill for representation of backward women, had asserted that the call for women’s reservation was a conspiracy by certain Hindus to perpetuate gender disparities among women.
The anxiety and perplexity of Modi following the release of the caste-specific census in Bihar can be gauged by the fact that though the census was conducted at the behest of Nitish Kumar, the blame is laid by Modi on the Congress. According to the census data from Bihar, the Muslim population in the state is approximately 18%, Yadavs make up about 12%, backward classes constitute 27.13%, and most backward classes account for 36%. Together, the two backward groups represent over 63% of the population. Should reservations be made based on population size, smaller groups such as the Savarnas (upper castes) comprising Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Kayasthas, who together make up about 10.5% of the state population, would have minimal representation. If the reservation is extended on this basis, it could potentially have a significant impact on the representation of Savarnas in various areas, including women’s reservation, government job opportunities, and their participation in various fields and politics, ultimately resulting in diminished representation for this group. Such a scenario is not acceptable at any cost to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as it could challenge their political dominance. The rising demand for conducting caste-specific census in all the states is adding to the growing concerns of the RSS and the BJP, as it could reveal that the upper castes are a minority in the country. The fear is that if the entire nation discovers that, on average, the historically marginalized groups constitute more than 60% while the upper castes make up approximately 10.5%, then this revelation could threaten the very foundations of the RSS and the BJP. This is because, throughout the history of the RSS, top positions, including that of its leader, have consistently been held by the upper castes, the Brahmins. Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar further added to the political woes of Modi and the RSS when, following a cabinet meeting on the second day of publication of caste census data, declared that his government would provide a 10% reservation to economically disadvantaged Savarnas. The BJP’s primary concern lies in the fact that, up until now, it has relied on Hindutva and fielded politicians like Giriraj Singh, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Ashwini Kumar Chaubey, Janardan Sigriwal, Nityanand Roy, RK Singh, Radha Mohan Singh, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, and Sushil Kumar Singh, all hailing from the Sarvana castes, to secure electoral victories and reach the Lok Sabha. However, this strategy appears to pose increasing challenges in the future. Similar situations may arise in other states of the country as well.
In Bihar, although the Rajputs account for less than 3.5% of the population, there are presently five Rajput Members of Parliament in the Lok Sabha. After the release of Bihar’s data, Prime Minister Narendra Modi seemingly exhibited empathy towards Muslims, and all the Godi media channels and their anchors started dancing for the Muslims by focusing attention on this shift. Questions are being raised in various circles as to why there has never been a Muslim Chief Minister for the state when more than 18% of the population in Bihar belongs to the Muslim community. However, these channels and their paid anchors do not have genuine sympathy towards Muslims but have ulterior motives in emphasizing this issue, with the intention of fostering divisions between Muslims, Yadavs, and other communities. Modi’s claims that a caste-based census would divide Hindu society and jeopardize the welfare of Hindu women seem to lack credible support. It remains unclear on what grounds he argues that ensuring equitable rights for women from lower-caste and economically disadvantaged backgrounds in various sectors would be detrimental to Hindu society.
The impact of the release of Bihar’s caste-based census data was evident when the ED (Enforcement Directorate) conducted raids on multiple locations linked to the offices of ‘news-click’ news portal and its associated journalists on the morning of October 3, the day after the census data was made public. Several prominent journalists, including Abhisar Sharma, Umilesh, Bhasha Singh, Prabir Purkayastha, Teesta Setalvad, and a number of others were detained and interrogated throughout the day in an apparent attempt to intimidate them. On the same day, in the evening over twenty MPs from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) went to meet Union Minister Niranjan Jyothi but she was unavailable. Hence, all these MPs including Mahua Moitra staged a sit-in dharna but they were forcibly removed and mistreated by the Delhi Police. The following day, the ED reached the residence of Aaam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha member Mr. Sanjay Singh, subjecting him to extensive interrogation throughout the day, and arrested him in the evening. The opposition parties have alleged that Modi and the BJP are reading the writing on the wall of their defeat in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, and this fear is haunting both Modi and the BJP. This is driving the Modi government to employ the ED and other agencies excessively to vent out its fear and frustration and intimidate journalists and others who are capable of providing impartial .analysis of political developments and forecasting potential results. It remains to be seen what significant measures the Modi government will take to turn the tide in its favour in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
